Trump Administration’s Commercial Interests Eclipse Political Focus in Libya, Warns Former US Envoy

The former US Special Envoy for Libya, Jonathan Winer, has revealed a fundamental shift in Washington’s priorities towards Tripoli under the Trump administration, asserting that commercial interests have decisively outweighed the traditional political concerns of any previous administration.
Prioritising Economic Deals Over Policy
In sharp comments, Winer indicated that the Trump administration is primarily focused on securing outcomes that translate into new investment opportunities and contracts for American companies. He added that the recent visit by US Envoy Paul is proof that Libya remains on the White House’s agenda, albeit with “an economic dimension that is difficult to separate from the political,” despite the nature of the proposed deals remaining unclear.
Internal Obstruction of Political Resolution
Winer strongly criticised the prevailing political system in Libya, arguing that the parties who feel secure in their positions view “the United Nations’ efforts as a threat rather than an opportunity.” He concluded that this rigidity is the core reason behind the postponement of elections for over a decade.
Dismissing Formal Partition but Acknowledging Spheres of Influence
Regarding Libya’s geopolitical future, the former US envoy dismissed the idea of a formal partition of the country, as some have suggested. However, he did not rule out the continued reality of spheres of influence controlled by rival factions and powers, anticipating that this fragile stability would be punctuated by “intermittent periods of conflict over control.”
Acknowledging Inadequate US Response to Russian Intervention
Concerning the US role and international involvement, Winer admitted to a shortcoming in the American response to Russia’s “destabilising presence” in Libya, noting a lack of clear evidence that Washington’s efforts to diminish Russian influence there have been effective. He suggested that the meetings between Envoy Paul and US officials in Tripoli are likely to include discussions on efforts related to this matter.
Winer concluded his analysis with cautious pessimism, stating that he “does not see significant opportunities for change in the near term.” Nevertheless, he expressed hope that the current momentum generated by the UN Mission will succeed in “paving the way for more unified and inclusive elections and government.