A United Nations report, published by the Releaf website, has revealed the latest statistics on migration from North Africa to Europe. The report indicates a continued flow of irregular migrants across the Mediterranean, alongside noticeable shifts in crossing routes and the distribution of nationalities, against a backdrop of tightened security measures and worsening humanitarian crises.
Libya Dominates Departures to Italy Despite Decline
By the end of September 2025, 49,799 irregular migrants had arrived in Italy by sea, marking a slight 1% increase compared to the same period in 2024.
Main Launch Point: Libya remains the primary departure location, accounting for 88% of all voyages (43,901 individuals).
Tunisia and Algeria: Tunisia ranked second with 8% (3,727 people), while Algeria recorded only 2% (983 people).
Route Changes: Recent indicators point to an 8% decrease in departures from Libya, contrasted by a 21% rise in crossings from Tunisia and a striking 98% increase from Algeria. This suggests a gradual shift in migration paths due to the intensified crackdown by Libyan and Tunisian authorities on smuggling networks.
Arriving Nationalities and the Surge of Egyptians and Sudanese
Asian and African nationalities topped the list of arrivals to Italy:
Bangladeshis: 31% (Leading the list).
Eritreans: 14%.
Egyptians: 13%.
Pakistanis: 7%.
Sudanese: 5%.
The report links the notable increase in Egyptian and Sudanese numbers specifically to the deportation and detention campaigns in eastern Libya, which prompted many to leave before being apprehended.
Western Route Shifts to Spain
For the first time since 2020, the Western Mediterranean route, originating from Algeria and Morocco, has become the main path for reaching Spain.
Increased Arrivals from Morocco and Algeria: Spanish authorities registered the arrival of 14,648 migrants, a 26% increase by sea compared to 2024.
Canary Islands Decrease: Conversely, voyages towards the Canary Islands dropped to 12,909 arrivals, a 58% decrease, attributed to tighter monitoring in Mauritania and Senegal.
Rising Migrant and Refugee Numbers in Libya and Deportations
According to the International Organization for Migration’s (IOM) Displacement Tracking Matrix, the number of migrants present in Libya reached approximately 867,000 individuals by April 2025, a 19% increase from the previous year. UN sources estimate that the number of Sudanese alone could reach 800,000 due to the ongoing war in Sudan.
Registered refugees and asylum seekers also rose to 101,567 by September 2025, an increase of 52% year-on-year, with Sudanese accounting for roughly 80% of this group.
Eastern Libya witnessed extensive deportation and detention campaigns during the summer of 2025, affecting hundreds of Sudanese, Egyptians, and others. Over 700 Sudanese were deported in July, and 1,102 Egyptians in separate operations. These measures followed local protests demanding the removal of foreigners, though human rights organisations deemed the deportations a violation of the non-refoulement principle enshrined in the 1969 African Refugee Convention.
International Cooperation and Rescue Operation Tensions
Shooting Incidents: Libyan waters saw incidents of coast guard forces firing upon humanitarian rescue vessels (such as Ocean Viking and Sea-Watch 5) during August and September, sparking widespread European concern.
Turkey-Italy Agreement: Italy and Turkey signed an agreement on September 11 to boost cooperation in combating irregular migration from Libya, involving security coordination and joint training.
Criticism of Tunisia: Tunisia faces growing criticism regarding its treatment of sub-Saharan migrants, with international legal proceedings being prepared before the African Court on Human and Peoples’ Rights.
Voluntary Returns and Missing Persons
The number of migrants who voluntarily returned to their home countries through IOM’s voluntary return programmes exceeded 5,000 individuals between January and July 2025, more than double the figure for 2023.
However, the IOM’s Missing Migrants Project recorded at least 885 deaths or disappearances on the Central Mediterranean route to Italy, 206 on the Western route to Spain, and 353 on the Atlantic route to the Canary Islands by the end of September 2025. Despite an overall 20% drop in fatalities compared to 2024, estimates suggest the actual figures may be significantly higher due to insufficient documentation.
