Libya is bracing for a potential new surge of Sudanese refugees across its southern border following Al-Fashir’s fall to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). This development threatens to unleash severe security, humanitarian, and economic repercussions on Southern Libya, which now serves as the direct frontline for people fleeing Darfur.
Moussa Tihousay, a specialist in African affairs, told Independent Arabia that the consequences of Al-Fashir’s fall would heavily impact Libya’s southern border, predicting a rise in the number of Sudanese arrivals in the coming weeks. Tihousay explained that over 170,000 individuals have already departed the besieged city. With the persistent ethnic conflict and deteriorating security conditions in Sudan, Libya has become the nearest and most probable destination.
Meanwhile, the European Commission estimates indicate that more than 360,000 Sudanese citizens have entered Libyan territory since the war began, placing immense strain on infrastructure and services in border towns. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) anticipates that the number of Sudanese refugees in Libya could surpass 650,000 by the end of 2025 if the conflict persists.
In Kufra, human rights worker Jaber Abu Ajila confirmed that Libyan authorities lack a coherent strategy for managing the refugee influx. He pointed out that the political division between the eastern and western governments complicates the situation, leaving the South a neglected region without a unified central authority. Abu Ajila emphasised that the Government of National Unity (GNU) does not exercise effective control over the South, obliging the Libyan government to manage the humanitarian crisis resulting from the recent waves of displacement.
To address this challenge, Abu Ajila called on the 5+5 Joint Military Committee to take immediate action on the repercussions of the border crisis, warning that the absence of formal coordination could pose significant security risks. He also urged activation of cooperation with UNHCR to deliver vital aid, including tents and basic supplies, especially as winter approaches and temperatures drop in Southern Libya.
In a related context, human rights advocate Mona Touka stressed the necessity of a comprehensive humanitarian approach, noting that Libya has transformed from a mere transit point to an actual host country for refugees. She argued that establishing isolated camps is not a sustainable solution; instead, efforts must focus on organising the humanitarian presence and distributing refugees across areas capable of absorption without disrupting the local social fabric. Touka warned that a continued absence of a unified national asylum policy could exacerbate social tensions and foster hate speech, suggesting that anti-Sudanese campaigns on social media reflect a fear of the unknown rather than deliberate xenophobia. In light of this, she called for official public awareness campaigns to clarify the nature of the crisis, refugees’ rights, and the state’s responsibilities.
Observers conclude that the Sudanese refugee file poses a true test of Libya’s capacity to manage humanitarian crises amid its political and security fragmentation. While humanitarian organisations and rights advocates demand strengthened partnerships with the UN and international bodies, the core question remains: Can Libya transform this crisis into an opportunity to build a new humanitarian model that restores public trust and demonstrates its commitment to the principles of African neighbourliness and human solidarity?